Week 11 NFL Picks
I was much improved last week, coming up with a respectable 10-5 mark after embarrassing myself by going 5-8 my first week on the blog. When you’re picking games for money, a loss is a loss, but when you’re picking for pride, there are moral victories I think. So the Saints didn’t cover against the Rams? Who would have picked the Rams there? I would still go take the Saints every time in that matchup. I don’t feel like an idiot for missing that game. Sure my Seahawks couldn’t stay within 8.5 of the Cardinals, but when i wrote it up I said I thought the Hawks would give a good effort and keep it close with a 24-20 loss. Well, they did give a good effort and were actually down 24-20 before a late 4th quarter pick that Arizona turned into 7 to stretch the margin to 11. I still feel good about that call. Now the Dallas Green Bay game on the other hand…Good god! Could I have been more wrong? I thought the Pack were done and Dallas was rolling and would go into Lambeau and get a 28-17 win. The Cowboys didn’t even score until there were 38 seconds left to make the game look more respectable than it was at 17-7. Thanks Romo! At least Roy Williams caught the TD pass to make my fantasy prediction look good for him, even if he dropped like five balls while crapping it up for the first 59 minutes of the game.
I have to say this week’s schedule sucks. There really isn’t a single game that stands out as being a great matchup, highlighted by the epic Browns-Lions stink fest. Maybe some people would call the Chargers-Broncos a good game, since they are both 6-3 and tied for first in the AFC West, and that is the best match up of the week on paper, but personally, I think it will be a blowout and could really care less about both teams. Just because the games suck though, doesn’t mean I won’t pick ‘m though. As always, all spreads are based on those from the ESPN Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. Without further ado, here we go:
@ Carolina Panthers -3.5 Miami Dolphins – This week’s Thursday game. Unlike last week, I no longer feel like I’m the only one that thinks the Panthers are a decent team, as evidenced by the fact that they are favored. Injuries have taken a toll on the Dolphins, both in the secondary, and now to Ronnie Brown. The player they could least afford to lose is out for the year. DeAngelo Williams is listed as questionable this week, but he was last week too, and played well. Jake Delhome has actually been playing alright lately, or at least not throwing multiple picks a game. As long as he doesn’t blow it, the Panthers should handle this just fine. Prediction: Panthers 24 – Dolphins 13
@ Detroit Lions -3.5 Cleveland Browns – Is -3.5 the line or the over/under? I’d take the under. I can’t remember a worse matchup than this. Each team comes in with one win and hasn’t looked good doing it. Cleveland hasn’t scored a touchdown in three weeks, never got farther than the Ravens 48 yard line last week, and has definitely looked like the worst team in the league. They rarely throw the ball over 10 yards, and when they do Brady Quinn can hardly keep his passes inbounds. The Lions should be able to score some points and make themselves look good here. Prediction: Lions 27 Browns 10.
San Francisco 49ers +6.5 @ Green Bay Packers – I really don’t know what to expect from either of these teams. The Packers have been Jekyll and Hyde all season, most notably the last two weeks when they lost to Tampa, then turned around and beat the Cowboys. The encouraging things are that last week their defense looked the best it has all year, and their playing at home. Do we even know if they 49ers are any good? They’re 4-5, and really haven’t beaten anyone that good (maybe the Arizona win in week 1). Alex Smith is looking worse every week. If he’s going to be the man in SF, he needs to do it this week. Who’s confident in that? When in doubt, take the points. Prediction: Packers 20 – Niners 17
Pittsburg Steelers -9.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs – Troy Palamalu is out, which changes my view of the Steelers D. They are one of the top 5 in the league with him, but have looked very average when he’s out. That being said, the Chiefs make a lot of defenses look like top 5 defenses. I think they might move the ball a little bit better than most think, but not enough to make it a game. The Steelers are hungry after being swept by Cincy last week. I think they’ll recommit to the run a bit this week and let Rashard Mendenhall run all over the Chiefs. Prediction: Steelers 31 – Chefs 14
Washington Redskins +11.5 @ Dallas Cowboys – Did you see the turd Dallas laid last week? The Cowboys are the same Cowboys they’ve been the last few years. I wouldn’t trust them to cover an 11.5 point line against anyone, let alone in a rivalry game like this. Redskins are bad, but not as bad as the team we saw early in the year. I think Ladell Betts is an upgrade at running back at this point, which has really helped them on offense. I’m not going say the wrong team is favored, but it will be closer than 11 and I feel an upset. Prediction ‘Skins 20 – Cowboys 16
Atlanta Falcons +6.5 @ New York Giants – Two teams that are reeling right now. The Giants have lost four in a row, have a bad/depleted secondary, can’t rush the passer, and their QB is playing hurt and bad. The Falcons have lost 3 of 4, have a bad/depleted secondary, and just lost their star running back to injury for at least this week. I assume it will be a cold windy day in the Meadowlands, which actually favors the visiting quarterback from Atlanta. Eli Manning has a much better road record than home over his career. He doesn’t have the best arm and his passes tend to flutter on windy days. Matt Ryan on the other hand has a great arm and played his college ball at Boston College, so he’s no stranger to wind and cold. Ryan’s had to handle a lot more of the offense than he did as a rookie, and has thus been more turnover prone this year. I think he has the better day today though and the Giants slide continues. Not only do they cover, but I think they win too. Prediction: Falcons 21 – Giants 17
New Orleans Saints -11.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Saints let everyone down by not covering a big spread against St. Louis last week. It shouldn’t happen again though. Tampa is bad all over and even though the Saints secondary has been decimated by injuries lately, they’re still very opportunistic and have Darren Sharper, who’s aging like fine wine. I expect the Saints to get their usual defensive TD and for Drew Brees to have a big game this week to get the Saints back to their high octane offensive ways. Prediction: Saints 38 – Bucs 13
@ Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 Buffalo Bills – The Jags are 5-4 now and trying to win three in a row for the first time this year. They’re on the upswing and really have some things going well right now, mostly on offense with their big three of Jones-Drew, Garrard, and Sims-Walker (sounds like way more than three guys there). Buffalo on the other hand is regressing. Their offense is going nowhere and their defense is starting to slip as this though season wears on. They fired Dick Jurron this week maybe in hope of sparking the team. Seems more like the white flag to me though. Prediction: Jags 31 – Bills 14
Indianapolis Colts +0.5 Baltimore Ravens – Now I really like this Ravens team, but they just haven’t been firing on all cylinders for much of the year. Last week’s performance vs the Browns was disappointing and they’ll need to be much better to compete with the Colts. Payton Manning is playing as well as any quarterback at any time in the history of the NFL right now. The practically nonexistent line means you’re really just picking who you think will win. I’m taking Peyton Manning every time. Prediction: Colts 24 – Ravens 20
@ Minnesota Vikings -11.5 Seattle Seahawks – I wouldn’t be shocked to see Adrian Peterson rush for 300 yards in this game. Seriously, I wouldn’t. I don’t think that will happen, but he should have a big day. The biggest thing holding him back will be the equally big day for Brett Favre against an already bad Hawks secondary that has its top two corners out with concussions. Would Favre find some good feeling in killing the team that just pushed out his beloved mentor Mike Holmgren? Would Steve Hutchinson again like to blow open big holes against the team that slapped him in the face with a transition tag? Yes and yes. Seattle’s season is over. Hawks fans look away. This is going to be a disaster. Prediction: Vikings 45 – Hawks 10
Arizona Cardinals -8.5 @ St. Louis Rams – Arizona’s offense is clicking as the run game continues to improve every week with Beanie Wells. They know the division is theirs and should be out to prove it with authority. The Rams gave a good effort last week against the Saints and I expect as much again. They won’t catch the Cardinals sleeping though. Effort isn’t enough. You need talent and the Rams just don’t have much. Prediction: Cards 35 – Rams 20
San Diego Chargers -2.5 @ Denver Broncos – The Broncos slide hit a new low when they lost to the Redskins last week. Kyle Orton is hurting and might not play. If he does, he’ll less than a 100% Kyle Orton, which isn’t good. Otherwise they can go with a 100% Chris Simms, which is worse. A defense that was strong against the run is showing holes as well. The Chargers appear to be peaking. They’ve won four straight since they lost to the Broncos last month and I think they’ll be in their heads. Remember last season when the Broncos started hot and the Chargers slow, and San Diego came back and beat Denver in the final game of the season to win the division and keep Denver out of the playoffs? This seems pretty similar, except it ain’t coming down to the last game this time. The Chargers will take care of things now and are happy to kick Denver while they’re down. Prediction: Bolts 28 – Broncos 6
Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 @ Oakland Raiders – If there were any doubts about the Bengals legitimacy, they were erased last week. Now at 7-2 and 5-0 in the division, they hold a one game lead on Pittsburg and two game lead on Baltimore while holding both tie breakers by beating each twice. In Oakland, the JaMarcus Russell era has come to a merciful end. Bruce Gradkowski will get the start, and should be a minor upgrade. Unfortunately, they still have the same receivers that can’t catch or run routes. I really hope this isn’t another Oakland-Philly situation. The Bengals shouldn’t miss Cedric Benson too much for this week. Prediction: Bengals 28 – Raiders 13
@ New England Patriots -10.5 New York Jets – I’ve gone back and forth on this one. There’s a lot I like about the Jets, but their passing game is just too immature and they aren’t quite there yet as far as being a real contender. The Patriots have too much too play for in this game. At 6-3 now, they’re in a dogfight to try and get home field advantage for the playoffs. More than that, they are pissed off. Both at the loss to the Jets earlier this year and after the close lose that involved that 4th down call last week (which I liked) against the Colts. No one plays better mad than New England. Prediction: Pats 35 – Jets 13
@ Chicago Bears +3.5 Philadelphia Eagles – I’m not a big fan of either team, but I think Chicago will win here. Jay Cutler has thrown a league leading 17 interceptions, but just two at home. The Bears defense can be exploited on the ground, but Andy Reid refuses to run the ball, and that’s when Brian Westbrook was playing. Philadelphia should win this game, but they won’t. Prediction: Bears 21 – Eagles 14
Tennessee Titans -4.5 @ Houston Texans – I have to say I’m starting be more impressed with Vince Young. It can’t be disputed that the guy wins football games. After a 0-6 start, the Titans have won three straight, but I think he Texans are better than the Jags, 49ers, and Bills. Chris Johnson is just running circles around people and has put himself up the same category with Adrian Peterson when you ask who the best back in the league is. The Tennessee secondary is still the weak point of the team and Matt Schaub should take advantage. I expect a high scoring game. I actually was taking the Texans, but after writing this paragraph out, I think I’ll switch. Prediction: Texans 38- Titans 35
Last week = 10-5; Record after two weeks = 15-13.
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