Week 14 NFL Picks

I’m still hemorrhaging over here from the horrible massacre that was my picks column last week.  I have to say this is the first time I’ve been thoroughly embarrassed on this blog.  4-12?!  I blame it on being on vacation and doing the picks article from the beach in less than an hour.  Even still, I could have thrown darts at a board and had better luck.  What hurt most was just teams not covering, but there were still plenty that I got totally wrong.  With the blog and this picks column being pretty new, the one bad week just killed my overall record.  It’s pretty bad to say you know so much about football, then suddenly be under .500 after four weeks.  I guess that’s why they play the games.

Aside from my own personal ass kicking, what the hell was up with some of the eggs laid by supposedly good teams?  The Patriots give up a 14-0 lead and lose to the Dolphins?!  The defending champion Steelers allow three fourth quarter touchdown passes to Bruce Gradkowski and go down to the Raiders?!  Minnesota not just losing, but getting their ass kicked by the Cardinals?  Now I think the Vikings were an aberration, they had a bad game and are still 10-2, but I think we got the final verdict on the Pats and Steelers.  They will both be in contention to make the playoffs in what looks like an uncharacteristically weak AFC, but neither is any kind of Super Bowl contender.  Great teams don’t lose to bad teams and they win on the road.  Neither New England or Pittsburgh have been able to do that consistently this year and while still good, are definitely not great.  What might hurt them down the stretch even more is that no one is going to be afraid of them.  In the past, half the game was one before it was even played.  These are the two teams that have captured the majority of the Super Bowls over the last eight years.  Lesser teams came in knowing how skilled, smart, and clutch they where and it affected them mentally.  All they had to do was get up by one or two scores early and opponents would practically give up.  They’d both make the post season as things stand now, but I would bet one of them will be at home come playoff time.

Here’s to hoping the football world rights itself and I can show last week was a Vikings-like aberration, and not signs that I’m just a mediocre picker.  As always, these picks are against the spread, which is determined for this by the ESPN Pigskin Pick ‘Em game.  Here’s where I’m placing my bets (metaphorically of course.  I don’t sanction gambling.  It’s against the law.):

Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5 @ Cleveland Browns – I have very little confidence in the Steelers at this point, as discussed above, but I still have even less confidence in the Browns.  Yes they put up 23 points and covered against a good San Diego team last week, but that game was 30-3 with under five minutes left before the Chargers eased up and let Cleveland get 16 meaningless points to close the game.  As I’ve said for weeks, the Steelers defense is average at best without Troy Polamalu, but I think they can hold down Brady Quinn and Jerome Harrison.  I think they’ll also being trying to prove something, and shouldn’t let up the way San Diego did last week.  The Steelers are without Hines Ward, and should look to pound it with Mendenhall and get some big plays with Holmes and Wallace.  Prediction: Steelers 27 – Browns 10

New Orleans Saints -9.5 @ Atlanta Falcons - Philadelphia’s aggressive blitzing defense held backup QB Chris Redmond and the Atlanta Falcons to just seven points at home last week.  I expect more of the same from a similarly, if not better, aggressive and blitzing Saints defense.  The Saints can always pt up points, and the Falcons have a pretty bad secondary.  After last weeks scare the Saints should come out strong and focused and get a big lead early.  They’ll probably ease up a bit at the end, but not enough to let the Falcons cover.  Prediction: Saints 38 – Falcons 17

Green Bay Packers -3.5 @ Chicago Bears - I know these are rivals and the game is in Chicago, but 3.5 points?  The Bears couldn’t cover and looked bad in their 17-9 win against the Rams last week, while the Packers have won four in a row by almost 13 per game.  I think Aaron Rodgers has been sapping Jay Cutler’s mojo, because it as Cutler gets worse and worse every week, Rodgers has just been getting better.  Last week’s 27-14 win over the Ravens wasn’t even as close as the score and Chicago is not even close to as good.  The only problem the Packers should have is figuring out where to line up Charles Woodson, since Chicago doesn’t have any good receivers for him to lock down.  The rivalry factor normally closes the gap in a game, but I think it goes the other way here.  Chicago is just playing so bad, and the Pack are happy to kick them while they’re down.  Prediction: Pack 31 – ‘Da Bears 10

@ Indianapolis Colts -7.5 Denver Broncos – I’m not betting against the Colts anymore.  I’m just not.  They have won and covered the last two weeks when I thought they wouldn’t and I’m going to pick them until they let me down (which will now probably be this week).  I think Denver can keep it close, and want to take them and the points in a COlt win, but I can’t.  Besides, the game is in Indy, so the Colts have that going for them too.  They won’t let the perfect season fall in front of their home crowd.  Prediction: Colts 23 – Broncos 14

@ Kansas City Chiefs -0.5 Buffalo Bills - Ugh.  This is a horrible matchup.  I’d really rather just take neither and avoid having anything to do with this crapfest.  Neither team can be trusted and routinely suck only to put up one decent performance every 4-6 games, before reverting to suckville.  The Bills can’t stop the run, the Chiefs can’t stop the pass, and both offenses struggle with everything.  I’m going to take the Chiefs for two main common sense reasons.  #1, they’re at home, and #2, they will have the best offensive player on the field (Jamaal Charles).  Prediction: Chefs 17 – Bills 13

@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 New York Jets - Another game I’d like to stay away from, but that’s not an option.  Let’s be clear that no matter how poorly Mark Sanchez has been playing lately, Kellen Clemens is not an upgrade.  The Jets have won a couple in a row and are thinking playoffs again, which means they’ll probably blow a game that they should definitely win.  That’s one reason to take Tampa, but I actually think it’s not a game they should win.  The Bucs have actually been playing decent defense the last couple weeks since switching back to a cover 2 scheme after demoting coordinator Jim Bates.  They gave up 20 to Atlanta and just 16 to Carolina.  Not really powerhouse offenses, but neither are the Jets.  This should be similar to the Carolina game, as the Jets have a great run game and are starting a backup QB.  Josh Freeman was awful last week, but should recover for a decent game, and the reemergence of Antonio Bryant should help as well, even though he’ll be locked down on Revis Island.  Tampa has also started to get Cadillac Williams and the run game going a bit last week.  The Jest rush defense has been abysmal since Kris Jenkins went down.  If Freeman can limit his turnovers, I think the Bucs pull the upset at home.  Prediction: Bucs 24 – Jets 20

Miami Dolphins +2.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars - It’s just really hard for be to see Jacksonville, who got crushed 40-0 in Seattle, as a playoff contender.  They’re 7-5, but don’t have a good win all season.  At 6-6, the Dolphins have two wins against the Jets and last week’s upset of the Patriots on their resume, along with some close losses to some really good teams (Ind, SD, NE, NO).  I don’t think home field counts for much in the crypt that is Jacksonville’s home stadium, so I can’t justify the Jags being favored in this game.  Chad Henne is really coming on, and Miami can still run the ball and the Wildcat well even without Ronnie Brown.  The Jags underperform on offense, where they should be doing much more with Gerrard, MLD, and Sims-Walker.  On defense they are pretty even on paper, but the Dolphins seem to play people tough, despite injuries and two rookie corners, while the Jags have injuries and just don’t look very good.  I guess it all comes down to the mental game, where Miami is tough and smart, in the Bill Parcells mold, while the Jags just seem soft.  I’ll take the tough team every time.  Prediction: ‘Phins 24 – Jags 21

Detroit Lions +13.5 @ Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens just aren’t as good on defense as they have been in the past.  They’re corners suck, and the rest of the defense is just getting old.  I think the Lions will be able to make some plays, and Calvin Johnson in particular is going to be a bit more than they can shut down.  Baltimore is still a good team, and have their backs against the wall as far as making the playoffs, so you know they’ll come to play.  Joe Flacco looks like he wasn’t quite ready to put the team on his back this year, but should be able to manage this game.  I think they win, but Detroit makes them earn it.  In the end it will be the Detroit defense that really lets them down and Ray Rice and co. get enough to pull it out.  Prediction: Ravens 24 – Lions 17

@ Houston Texans -6.5 Seattle Seahawks - Both teams have been disappointments this year.  After a 5-3 start, Houston has free falled to four loses in a row.  Seattle ruined their season early, but has won a couple straight.  Both now sit at 5-7 and all their fans wonder why they were ever sucked in to being excited in the first place.  The Hawks two wins where both at home though, where they’ve played well for years.  I doubt they can keep the momentum going for a 10am road game that usually spells disaster for them.  I also think now that the pressure of making the playoffs is over, the Texans can relax and win some games to get back their customary 8-8 finish.  Neither team has been rushing the passer well or stopping the pass in general, so their could be some points scored.  Prediction: Texans 28 – Hawks 20

@ Minnesota Vikings -6.5 Cincinnati Bengals - Outside of two games, the Bengals haven’t scored more than 23 points in a game all year.  The Vikings only scored less than 27 twice.  The Bengals have been good, but in retrospect have only beat one team, Green Bay, with a record better than 6-6.  They have run the ball and played solid defense, but there just isn’t anything there that scares me.  Everything on the Vikings scares me if I’m an opponent.  From Favre and his receiving core to the crushing o-line and running back tandem, to the defensive pass rush and solid secondary.  To win this game, Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson will have to have a big time, big play game, and they just haven’t shown me that they can do that at this point in the year.  Had the Vikings won last week, I might be inclined to think that they could let down and Cincinnati could win a close one, but not after the wake up call Arizona gave them.  The Vikings are too good to not get back on track.  I don’t think this will even be close.  Prediction: Vikings 31 – Bengals 17

@ New England Patriots -13.5 Carolina Panthers - Brady and the Pats always struggle in Miami.  I even put it in my picks column last week, so God knows why I still took New England.  They are coming back home now, where they have been good all year, and don’t let down their fans.  Belichick senses his team, that isn’t that good, is taking things for granted, and he sent a message this week by sending four starters home for being late to practice.  It might just be a desperate ploy, but the Pats usually by into these types of moves by him.  You can stick a fork in the Panthers for this year.  Matt Moore totally takes away a passing game that was barely there to begin with and DeAngelo Williams status is still up in the air.  New England comes out with a vengeance and runs this one up Patriots style.  Prediction: Pats 38 – Panthers 13

@ Tennessee Titans -12.5 St. Louis Rams - The Titans weren’t perfect against the Colts and it cost them a chance to run the table to 10-6.  Their playoff hopes aren’t dead yet though, and they should be ready to crush the Rams at home.  There simply isn’t anyone, let alone 11 guys on the Rams who can even dream about stopping Chris Brown.  I expect Young to have a big game too in what will be a totally one sided affair.  The Titans weakness on defense is their pass game, but Kyle Boller won’t take advantage, because…well, because he sucks.  Did you know that Boller is the Rams second leading rusher this year despite playing in just five games?  Yes, he has 63 yards on the ground this year.  Good for Boller!  Bad for the Rams.  Prediction: Titans 34 – Rams 10

Washington Redskins -1.5 @ Oakland Raiders -  Both teams are coming off good games last week, the Raiders beating Pittsburgh and Washington in a loss to the Saints.  Both have actually been playing much better lately, past just last week, too.  Had Oakland benched the top pick in the ’07 draft earlier, they might be in playoff contention.  If Washington had hired a 62 year old bingo caller as their offensive coordinator to start the year, they might be in playoff contention.  How wierd is the NFL?  As far as this game, I think the Redskins are still playing better overall than Oakland.  The defense has been solid all year, Jason Campbell has gotten better all year (no, really), and the running game has improved without Clinton Portis.  Washington is just due to get a win, especially after their kicker blew a 24 yard field goal that would have clinched a win against the undefeated Saints last week.  I think they get it this week.  Prediction: ‘Skins 20 – Raiders 16

San Diego Chargers +3.5 @ Dallas Cowboys - The calendar says December, so it’s time for the Cowboys to lose.  I know, there’s no analysis and it’s not even original, but the fact remains that it’s true.  No matter how good they played the rest of the year or how much talent they have had, Dallas just sucks at the end of the year.  You want analysis and research?  Fine.  Since 2005, the Cowboys are 41-16 from the beginning of the season until the end of November, never being worse than 7-4.  From December to the end of the year, they are 7-14, counting the playoffs (which they are 0-2),  never better than 2-3 (Again, I knew this last week too, but still took Dallas over the Giants.  What the hell is wrong with me?  Never try to make smart decisions while drinking cocktails on the beach.).  Add that up against playing a San Diego team that just as consistently starts cold and finishes hot, and looks better this year than they have in years, and this one could get ugly.  I have no idea how Dallas is favored, even at home.  Prediction: Bolts 27 – ‘Boys 17

Philadelphia Eagles +0.5 @ New York Giants - I don’t think the Giants could have beat any other team except the Cowboys last week, for reasons given above.  I just didn’t think they would be that good this year, and they are even disappointing me with their play.  The can’t run the ball or rush the quarterback, and that’s what this team was built on.  Eli looks off, affected by his plantar facitis, and Brandon Jacobs looks old.  It took him about four and a half minutes to score on that 70+ yard TD reception last week.  Seriously, I felt like I could have gotten off my couch on the other side of the country and still run him down from behind.  Philly is playing with a toughness I haven’t seen in them before.  McNabb is on his game, they’re actually running the ball, the defense is getting back to being the Eagle defense, and they even got Vick involved last week.  We’ll see if it lasts into the playoffs, but I think they will pull one out in the Big Apple, or at least in the stadium across the river from the Big Apple.  Prediction: Eagles 24 – Giants 13

Arizona Cardinals -3.5 @ San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers practiced harder and prepared better than any other team in the preseason and came out ready with a strong 3-1 start that led off with a 20-16 win in Arizona.  Well, the rest of the league adjusted to contact and caught up to them now and they are 5-7.  Arizona is the poster child for a team that came out soft and has toughened up as the season has progressed.  They’ve developed a power running game this year and are killing people with play action passing off of it.  They look to be back in their Super Bowl form, if not better.  They surely remember that opening game loss, and are actually better on the road (5-1) this year than at home (3-3).  A revenge game in the division that should be sweet for Warner and friends.  Prediction: Cards 35 – ‘Niners 20

So that’s how I see it this week.  After some reasearch and focus, I’m feeling good about things.  Hopefully It’ll show up in the results and give confidence back to you readers.  The lesson to take from last week is to never make relevent decisions while drinking (how many mornings has a guy/girl learned that lesson), and especially on vacation, where your care for everything in the real world is cut in half.

Last week = 4-12; Record after four weeks = 37-38